Interregional Variations of Fertility Contours in India: A Multilevel Modelling Approach.

Abstract

Since India’s independence, population stabilization has been one of the prime concerns in its development agenda. Although fertility decline in India has been underway since the 1970s, fertility levels in the northern and north-central states continue to be high. Using data from Census 2011 and other district level surveys and adopting the analytical approach proposed by Bhat (1996) the present study provides an explanation for interregional variations of fertility in India. Additionally, individual level data from National Family Health Survey-4 conducted during 2015-16 were used to compare and substantiate findings of district-level analyses. By employing multilevel linear regressions, we find that although factors representing socioeconomic structure, ideational changes, and health and family welfare can adequately explain regional variations of fertility even in the present day Indian society, new forms of social entities are emerging which also contribute to fertility transition.