Fertility Policy for India: Constant Number of Births, Replacement Level or Below Replacement Level Fertility?

Abstract

Population projections help in the formulation of policies directed towards meeting desired goals. Such projections cannot be considered as a one time event as new directions for policies and programs can emerge when the exercise is repeated.

In the Indian context, while it least two of the large states, namely Kerala and Tamil Nadu, have reached close to replacement level fertility, and some others are expected to follow suit soon, it is doubtful whether certain northern states, with large population will reach replacement level fertility even by the year 2001. Under these circumstances, vigorous action to reduce fertility immediately to replacement level may be an option, If this were to occur, it might have an undesired effect on the age structure of the population. Yet another option is to keep the number of births constant.