Contraceptive Failure and Its Subsequent Effects in China : A Two-Stage Event History Analysis

Abstract

Information on the determinants of contraceptive failure and the effects or outcome of such failure has important implications for the study of fertility as well as for women's health. Contraceptive failure becomes a progressively more important determinant of fertility as the fertility target of couples declines and as the prevalence of contraceptive use increases. Bongaarts and Rodriguez (1990) showed that, when the fertility target is two or three children, most, couples are likely to need protection against unwanted births before the woman's reproductive period ends, ie. for more than 10 years. However, if contraception is practised with 90 percent efficacy, more than two-thirds of couples can expect a contraceptive failure within 10 years. Unless couples resort to induced abortion, the births resulting from contraceptive failure would contribute substantially to a population's aggregate level of fertility.